Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
