A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
